The most likely outcome of the next election is that Keir Starmer will be prime minister of a minority Labour government. This is a statement of probability, rather than a prediction. Politics is weird and stuff happens: the Conservatives could implode and Labour could sweep to a parliamentary majority; or the economy, the NHS and the small boats could all turn around and happy days for the Tories could be here again.

Or some “unknown unknown” could upset all calculations. But let me set out why, on the information we now have, I think a hung parliament is the most likely result.

Before the local elections, Professor Sir John Curtice said that a Labour lead of 10 points in projected national vote share would be the equivalent of Labour winning a majority in a general election.

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